A storefront’s past barely predicts its next tenant.

Places that open where three or more businesses already failed are 1.1× as likely to close in their first year as places in a fresh storefront: close to no difference. The “cursed spot” is mostly a story we tell after the fact. What does carry over is how the last tenant fared, not how many came before it: when the previous place lasted under a year, about 45% of new openings close within three years, against about 26% when it lasted eight years or more.